Major League Soccer (USA) · Mon, Oct 26 · 01:00 · Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy
Likeliest: Los Angeles FC win · 63%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Los Angeles FC63%60%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
LA Galaxy19%20%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 40% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Los Angeles FC
DrawLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at New York City FC (A)1-1
- Oct 15 · v Austin FC (H)3-1
- Oct 11 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at FC Dallas (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · at San Jose Earthquakes (A)2-2
LA Galaxy
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · v San Diego FC (H)2-2
- Oct 15 · v Portland Timbers (H)2-0
- Oct 11 · at St.Louis City (A)2-6
- Sep 27 · v Colorado Rapids (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Minnesota United (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Los Angeles FC | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.