Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Thu, Aug 13 · 02:30 · Los Angeles FC vs Querétaro FC
Likeliest: Los Angeles FC win · 50%
A 28% draw. The market says 18%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Los Angeles FC50%68%−18
OursMarket
Draw28%18%+10
OursMarket
Querétaro FC23%14%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 68% | −24 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 56% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 86% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 32% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 82% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 83% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Los Angeles FC
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Aug 9 · at CD Toluca (A)1-0
- Aug 6 · v CD Guadalajara (H)1-1
- Aug 1 · at Vancouver Whitecaps (A)1-1
- Jul 26 · v Sporting Kansas City (H)4-0
- Jul 23 · v Real Salt Lake (H)3-1
Querétaro FC
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 9 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)0-3
- Aug 6 · at FC Dallas (A)0-2
- Aug 1 · v Tigres UANL (H)3-2
- Jul 27 · at CF Pachuca (A)2-1
- Jul 19 · v Club América (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Los Angeles FC | Querétaro FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 2-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.