Liga 1 (Peru) · Fri, Oct 16 · 20:30 · Los Chankas CYC vs Asociación Deportiva Tarma
Likeliest: Los Chankas CYC win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Los Chankas CYC47%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Asociación Deportiva Tarma27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Los Chankas CYC
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 8 · at Club Atlético Grau (A)0-0
- Sep 30 · at Cienciano (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Cajamarca (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · v ADC Juan Pablo II (H)3-4
Asociación Deportiva Tarma
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v FC Cajamarca (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · v Cienciano (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Alianza Lima (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Melgar (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v Sport Huancayo (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Los Chankas CYC | Asociación Deportiva Tarma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 0-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.