Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Mar 12 · 17:45 · LOSC Lille vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 40%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille40%32%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−3
OursMarket
Aston Villa35%39%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 47% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 68% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 45% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Mar 8 · v Lorient (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Nantes (H)1-0
- Feb 26 · at Crvena Zvezda (A)2-0
- Feb 22 · at Angers SCO (A)1-0
- Feb 19 · v Crvena Zvezda (H)0-1
Aston Villa
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Mar 4 · v Chelsea (H)1-4
- Feb 27 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)0-2
- Feb 21 · v Leeds United (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Newcastle United (H)1-3
- Feb 11 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 10% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.