Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 17 · 19:00 · LOSC Lille vs Auxerre
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 55%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille55%68%−13
OursMarket
Draw25%20%+6
OursMarket
Auxerre20%12%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 55% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 88% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 32% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 85% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- May 10 · at Monaco (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Apr 26 · at Paris (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Nice (H)0-0
- Apr 12 · at Toulouse (A)4-0
Auxerre
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- May 10 · v Nice (H)2-1
- May 3 · v Angers SCO (H)3-1
- Apr 25 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-3
- Apr 19 · at Monaco (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Nantes (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.