Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Feb 14 · 18:00 · LOSC Lille vs Brest
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 50%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille50%54%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Brest25%21%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 51% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 52% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 79% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 72% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Feb 6 · at Metz (A)0-0
- Feb 1 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)0-1
- Jan 29 · v SC Freiburg (H)1-0
- Jan 25 · v Strasbourg (H)1-4
- Jan 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-2
Brest
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Feb 7 · v Lorient (H)2-0
- Feb 1 · at Nice (A)2-2
- Jan 25 · v Toulouse (H)0-2
- Jan 18 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)1-2
- Jan 4 · v Auxerre (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.