Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, May 3 · 13:00 · LOSC Lille vs Le Havre
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 60%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille60%67%−7
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Le Havre18%12%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 51% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 45% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 88% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 33% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 85% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Apr 26 · at Paris (A)1-0
- Apr 18 · v Nice (H)0-0
- Apr 12 · at Toulouse (A)4-0
- Apr 4 · v Lens (H)3-0
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-1
Le Havre
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Apr 26 · v Metz (H)4-4
- Apr 18 · at Angers SCO (A)1-1
- Apr 12 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Apr 5 · v Auxerre (H)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Paris (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.