Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 4 · 19:05 · LOSC Lille vs Lens
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 39%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille39%33%+6
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Lens36%39%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 57% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 67% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 46% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-1
- Mar 19 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Rennes (A)2-1
- Mar 12 · v Aston Villa (H)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Lorient (H)1-1
Lens
LossDrawWinLossWin
- Mar 20 · v Angers SCO (H)5-1
- Mar 14 · at Lorient (A)1-2
- Mar 8 · v Metz (H)3-0
- Feb 27 · at Strasbourg (A)1-1
- Feb 21 · v Monaco (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.