Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 8 · 16:15 · LOSC Lille vs Lorient
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 48%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 49%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille48%60%−13
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Lorient29%16%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 51% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 49% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 84% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 40% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 79% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Mar 1 · v Nantes (H)1-0
- Feb 26 · at Crvena Zvezda (A)2-0
- Feb 22 · at Angers SCO (A)1-0
- Feb 19 · v Crvena Zvezda (H)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Brest (H)1-1
Lorient
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Mar 1 · v Auxerre (H)2-2
- Feb 22 · at Nice (A)3-3
- Feb 15 · v Angers SCO (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · at Brest (A)0-2
- Feb 4 · v Paris (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.