Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 1 · 16:15 · LOSC Lille vs Nantes
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 54%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille54%63%−9
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Nantes24%15%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 53% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 85% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 37% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 81% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Feb 26 · at Crvena Zvezda (A)2-0
- Feb 22 · at Angers SCO (A)1-0
- Feb 19 · v Crvena Zvezda (H)0-1
- Feb 14 · v Brest (H)1-1
- Feb 6 · at Metz (A)0-0
Nantes
LossLossLossLossWin
- Feb 22 · v Le Havre (H)2-0
- Feb 13 · at Monaco (A)1-3
- Feb 7 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-1
- Jan 31 · at Lorient (A)1-2
- Jan 25 · v Nice (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.