Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Apr 18 · 19:05 · LOSC Lille vs Nice
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille65%62%+3
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−2
OursMarket
Nice14%16%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 80% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
WinLossWinWinWin
- Apr 12 · at Toulouse (A)4-0
- Apr 4 · v Lens (H)3-0
- Mar 22 · at Olympique Marseille (A)2-1
- Mar 19 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · at Rennes (A)2-1
Nice
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Apr 12 · v Le Havre (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Strasbourg (A)1-3
- Mar 21 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)0-4
- Mar 14 · at Angers SCO (A)2-0
- Mar 8 · v Rennes (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.