Coupe de France (France) · Sun, Jan 11 · 20:00 · LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 45%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille45%42%+3
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Olympique Lyonnais30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 58% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Jan 3 · v Rennes (H)0-2
- Dec 20 · at St Maur Lusitanos (A)1-0
- Dec 14 · at Auxerre (A)4-3
- Dec 11 · at Young Boys (A)0-1
- Dec 5 · v Olympique Marseille (H)1-0
Olympique Lyonnais
LossWinWinWinWin
- Jan 3 · at Monaco (A)3-1
- Dec 21 · v Saint-Cyr Collonges (H)3-0
- Dec 14 · v Le Havre (H)1-0
- Dec 11 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)2-1
- Dec 7 · at Lorient (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.