Ligue 1 (France) · Fri, Dec 5 · 20:00 · LOSC Lille vs Olympique Marseille
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille43%39%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Olympique Marseille32%34%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 61% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 54% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
LossLossWinWinWin
- Nov 30 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
- Nov 27 · v Dinamo Zagreb (H)4-0
- Nov 23 · v Paris (H)4-2
- Nov 9 · at Strasbourg (A)0-2
- Nov 6 · at Crvena Zvezda (A)0-1
Olympique Marseille
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 29 · v Toulouse (H)2-2
- Nov 25 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
- Nov 21 · at Nice (A)5-1
- Nov 8 · v Brest (H)3-0
- Nov 5 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
LOSC Lille form·Olympique Marseille form·Head-to-head record