Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Jan 3 · 20:05 · LOSC Lille vs Rennes
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 63%
A 63% home win. The market says 53%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille63%53%+10
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−5
OursMarket
Rennes17%22%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 57% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 78% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 47% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 75% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 70% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 20 · at St Maur Lusitanos (A)1-0
- Dec 14 · at Auxerre (A)4-3
- Dec 11 · at Young Boys (A)0-1
- Dec 5 · v Olympique Marseille (H)1-0
- Nov 30 · at Le Havre (A)1-0
Rennes
WinWinLossWinWin
- Dec 21 · v Les Sables (H)3-0
- Dec 13 · v Brest (H)3-1
- Dec 6 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-5
- Nov 28 · at Metz (A)1-0
- Nov 22 · v Monaco (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.