Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Jan 25 · 19:45 · LOSC Lille vs Strasbourg
Likeliest: LOSC Lille win · 44%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
LOSC Lille44%42%+2
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Strasbourg30%31%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 58% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
LOSC Lille
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Jan 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)1-2
- Jan 16 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-3
- Jan 11 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)1-2
- Jan 3 · v Rennes (H)0-2
- Dec 20 · at St Maur Lusitanos (A)1-0
Strasbourg
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 18 · v Metz (H)2-1
- Jan 10 · at Avranches (A)6-0
- Jan 3 · at Nice (A)1-1
- Dec 21 · v Dunkerque (H)2-1
- Dec 18 · v Breidablik (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | LOSC Lille | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.