USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 21:00 · Loudoun United FC vs Brooklyn FC
Likeliest: Loudoun United FC win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Loudoun United FC57%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Brooklyn FC21%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Loudoun United FC
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at Birmingham Legion FC (A)0-0
- Oct 14 · at Rhode Island FC (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Miami FC (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v Indy Eleven (H)1-1
- Sep 25 · at SC Jacksonville (A)0-0
Brooklyn FC
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Hartford Athletic (A)3-2
- Oct 3 · v Rhode Island FC (H)1-3
- Sep 30 · v Detroit City FC (H)1-3
- Sep 23 · at Birmingham Legion FC (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · v FC Tulsa (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Loudoun United FC | Brooklyn FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.