USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:00 · Louisville City FC vs Detroit City FC
Likeliest: Louisville City FC win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Louisville City FC53%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Detroit City FC20%22%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Louisville City FC
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Indy Eleven (H)4-1
- Oct 10 · at Charleston Battery (A)2-0
- Sep 25 · at Hartford Athletic (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Loudoun United FC (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v El Paso Locomotive FC (H)1-2
Detroit City FC
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Rhode Island FC (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · v Birmingham Legion FC (H)1-0
- Sep 30 · at Brooklyn FC (A)3-1
- Sep 26 · v Colorado Springs Switchbacks FC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Louisville City FC | Detroit City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-2 | 4-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.