USL Championship (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:00 · Louisville City FC vs Indy Eleven
Likeliest: Louisville City FC win · 56%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Louisville City FC56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Indy Eleven20%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Louisville City FC
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Charleston Battery (A)2-0
- Sep 25 · at Hartford Athletic (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Loudoun United FC (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v El Paso Locomotive FC (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Rhode Island FC (A)1-1
Indy Eleven
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v FC Tampa Bay Rowdies (H)1-3
- Oct 3 · at Loudoun United FC (A)1-1
- Sep 30 · at Rhode Island FC (A)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Miami FC (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Oakland Roots SC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Louisville City FC | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-2 | 1-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.