First League (Bulgaria) · Mon, Sep 14 · 17:30 · Ludogorets vs FK Septemvri Sofia
Likeliest: Ludogorets win · 80%
A tight one: we make it 80% for the home win. The market says 78%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ludogorets80%78%+3
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
FK Septemvri Sofia7%7%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 93% | 93% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 20% | 22% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 91% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ludogorets
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 6 · at Lokomotiv Sofia (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Slavia Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)2-0
- Aug 9 · at Cherno More Varna (A)3-2
FK Septemvri Sofia
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 4 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Slavia Sofia (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-0
- Aug 17 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-0
- Aug 9 · v CSKA Sofia (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Ludogorets | FK Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.