League One (England) · Sat, Apr 25 · 14:00 · Luton Town vs Barnsley
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 50%
A 26% away win. The market says 13%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Luton Town50%67%−17
OursMarket
Draw23%19%+4
OursMarket
Barnsley26%13%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 87% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 33% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 83% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Luton Town
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Apr 21 · at Rotherham United (A)2-0
- Apr 18 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-2
- Apr 15 · v Northampton Town (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)3-0
- Apr 3 · v Peterborough United (H)2-1
Barnsley
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 21 · at Stevenage (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Bradford City (H)2-2
- Apr 14 · at Port Vale (A)0-0
- Apr 11 · at Rotherham United (A)3-1
- Apr 6 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Luton Town | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.