League One (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Luton Town vs Barnsley
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 60%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Luton Town60%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
Barnsley19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 66% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Luton Town
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Colchester United (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Ipswich Town U21 (H)6-0
- Sep 19 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
Barnsley
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Cambridge United (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Stockport County (A)1-3
- Oct 6 · at Fleetwood Town (A)1-4
- Sep 22 · v Leeds United U21 (H)3-4
- Sep 19 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Luton Town | Barnsley |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.