League One (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Luton Town vs Bradford City
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Luton Town44%45%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Bradford City28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Luton Town
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 10 · at Stevenage (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Leyton Orient (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · v Stockport County (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-5
- Aug 27 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
Bradford City
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Notts County (A)1-0
- Sep 8 · at Leyton Orient (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Mansfield Town (H)1-0
- Sep 1 · v Cambridge United (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Luton Town | Bradford City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.