League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Luton Town vs Leicester City
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Luton Town43%45%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Leicester City30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Luton Town
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Wycombe Wanderers (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Colchester United (A)1-1
- Sep 22 · v Ipswich Town U21 (H)6-0
- Sep 19 · v Bradford City (H)0-1
Leicester City
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Peterborough United (H)1-3
- Oct 6 · at Stevenage (A)1-2
- Sep 22 · v Fulham U21 (H)6-1
- Sep 19 · at Barnsley (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Luton Town | Leicester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.