League One (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:00 · Luton Town vs Leyton Orient
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Luton Town58%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
Leyton Orient22%21%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 73% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Luton Town
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 2 · v Stockport County (H)2-0
- Aug 30 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-5
- Aug 27 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Notts County (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Reading (A)4-3
Leyton Orient
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Sep 1 · at Bromley (A)5-0
- Aug 29 · v Barnsley (H)1-3
- Aug 25 · at Walsall (A)0-0
- Aug 22 · at Wigan Athletic (A)2-0
- Aug 18 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Luton Town | Leyton Orient |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.