League One (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 11:30 · Luton Town vs Notts County
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 55%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Luton Town55%58%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Notts County23%18%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 55% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 82% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 76% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Luton Town
WinWinWinWinWin
- Aug 15 · at Reading (A)4-3
- Aug 8 · at Gillingham (A)3-0
- May 2 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)3-2
- Apr 25 · v Barnsley (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Rotherham United (A)2-0
Notts County
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Aug 15 · v Leicester City (H)1-1
- Aug 8 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- May 25 · v Salford City (H)3-0
- May 15 · v Chesterfield (H)0-0
- May 10 · at Chesterfield (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Luton Town | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.