League One (England) · Wed, Sep 2 · 18:45 · Luton Town vs Stockport County
Likeliest: Luton Town win · 47%
A 47% home win. The market says 43%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Luton Town47%43%+5
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Stockport County30%32%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 59% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 57% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 57% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Luton Town
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 30 · at Mansfield Town (A)2-5
- Aug 27 · at Chelsea (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Notts County (H)2-2
- Aug 15 · at Reading (A)4-3
- Aug 8 · at Gillingham (A)3-0
Stockport County
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Aug 29 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)5-1
- Aug 22 · v Blackpool (H)1-2
- Aug 18 · v Everton U21 (H)6-3
- Aug 15 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)3-1
- Aug 8 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Luton Town | Stockport County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.