UEFA Nations League · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:45 · Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
Likeliest: Luxembourg win · 42%
We make it 52% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Luxembourg42%48%−6
OursMarket
Draw32%27%+4
OursMarket
Bulgaria27%25%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 45% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 73% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Luxembourg
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 3 · at Estonia (A)0-1
- Sep 29 · v Iceland (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · at Bulgaria (A)2-1
- Jun 6 · at Albania (A)1-0
- Jun 3 · v Italy (H)0-1
Bulgaria
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Iceland (A)0-3
- Sep 29 · v Estonia (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Luxembourg (H)1-2
- Jun 5 · at Moldova (A)2-2
- Jun 1 · v Montenegro (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Luxembourg | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-1-3 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.