3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Mon, Oct 19 · 16:00 · Lyn 1896 FK II vs Ørn-Horten
Likeliest: Lyn 1896 FK II win · 42%
A 29% draw. The market says 20%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lyn 1896 FK II42%58%−15
OursMarket
Draw29%20%+8
OursMarket
Ørn-Horten29%22%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 78% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 42% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 80% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 72% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lyn 1896 FK II
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 12 · at Elverum (A)3-4
- Oct 5 · v Råde (H)0-0
- Sep 28 · at Raelingen FK (A)0-1
- Sep 21 · v Sarpsborg 08 II (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Gjøvik-Lyn (A)0-2
Ørn-Horten
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Lillehammer (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Brumunddal (A)4-0
- Sep 26 · v Fram Larvik (H)4-2
- Sep 19 · v Oppsal (H)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Sandefjord Fotball II (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Lyn 1896 FK II | Ørn-Horten |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-0 | 3-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.