3rd Division, Group 6 (Norway) · Mon, Sep 21 · 16:00 · Lyn 1896 FK II vs Sarpsborg 08 II
Likeliest: Lyn 1896 FK II win · 45%
A 27% draw. The market says 22%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lyn 1896 FK II45%47%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%22%+5
OursMarket
Sarpsborg 08 II28%30%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 78% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lyn 1896 FK II
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · at Gjøvik-Lyn (A)0-2
- Sep 7 · at Drøbak/Frogn (A)1-4
- Aug 31 · v Sandefjord Fotball II (H)4-3
- Aug 17 · at Lillehammer (A)1-4
- Aug 10 · v Fram Larvik (H)4-3
Sarpsborg 08 II
WinLossWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Lillehammer (H)3-1
- Sep 7 · at Ørn-Horten (A)4-3
- Aug 31 · v Råde (H)3-2
- Aug 17 · at Fram Larvik (A)0-3
- Aug 9 · v Brumunddal (H)11-0
| Last 10 games | Lyn 1896 FK II | Sarpsborg 08 II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-3 | 4-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.