1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 18 · 15:00 · Lyn FK vs Moss FK
Likeliest: Lyn FK win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 72% for both teams to score. The market says 68%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lyn FK47%47%0
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Moss FK30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 69% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 68% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lyn FK
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 14 · at Haugesund (A)0-3
- Oct 11 · v Strømsgodset (H)0-0
- Oct 4 · at Bryne FK (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Ranheim IL (H)1-4
- Sep 16 · at Gamle Oslo FK (A)3-1
Moss FK
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Oct 14 · v Egersund (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Raufoss (A)2-1
- Oct 5 · v Kongsvinger (H)0-2
- Sep 23 · at Grorud (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Sandnes Ulf (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Lyn FK | Moss FK |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.