1. Division (Norway) · Sun, Oct 11 · 15:00 · Lyn FK vs Strømsgodset
Likeliest: Strømsgodset win · 56%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 56% for the away win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lyn FK21%22%−2
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
Strømsgodset56%56%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 75% | −10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 69% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 78% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 28% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lyn FK
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Oct 4 · at Bryne FK (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Ranheim IL (H)1-4
- Sep 16 · at Gamle Oslo FK (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · at Hødd IL (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Egersund (H)1-1
Strømsgodset
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Åsane (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Raufoss (A)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Sandnes Ulf (H)4-1
- Sep 5 · at Odds BK (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Sogndal IL (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Lyn FK | Strømsgodset |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.