Oddset Pokalen (Denmark) · Tue, Nov 3 · 17:00 · Lyngby vs Randers FC
Likeliest: Lyngby win · 43%
Likely scores: 1–1 12% · 2–1 10% · 1–0 8%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lyngby43%43%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Randers FC31%32%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lyngby
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 30 · v Randers FC (H)2-1
- Oct 25 · at FC Midtjylland (A)2-3
- Oct 18 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)3-3
- Oct 11 · at Brøndby IF (A)2-5
- Sep 18 · v Silkeborg IF (H)0-4
Randers FC
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 30 · at Lyngby (A)1-2
- Oct 23 · v Brøndby IF (H)1-3
- Oct 16 · at AC Horsens (A)0-0
- Oct 11 · v Viborg FF (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Sønderjyske Fodbold (A)2-4
| Last 10 games | Lyngby | Randers FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.