Superliga (Denmark) · Sun, Sep 13 · 12:00 · Lyngby vs Sønderjyske Fodbold
Likeliest: Lyngby win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Lyngby60%59%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Sønderjyske Fodbold18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Lyngby
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Sep 4 · at Viborg FF (A)2-0
- Aug 30 · v Odense Boldklub (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at AC Horsens (A)1-2
- Aug 16 · v FC Midtjylland (H)1-1
- Aug 9 · at Randers FC (A)0-2
Sønderjyske Fodbold
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 6 · v AC Horsens (H)2-5
- Aug 31 · at FC København (A)1-3
- Aug 23 · v FC Nordsjælland (H)0-3
- Aug 17 · at Brøndby IF (A)2-3
- Aug 7 · v Viborg FF (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Lyngby | Sønderjyske Fodbold |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-3 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.