LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sat, Oct 17 · 19:00 · Macará vs Independiente del Valle
Likeliest: Independiente del Valle win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Macará22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+2
OursMarket
Independiente del Valle46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 37% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Macará
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Universidad Católica del Ecuador (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · at Aucas (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Emelec (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Independiente del Valle (A)1-3
- Sep 2 · v Manta FC (H)4-3
Independiente del Valle
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 10 · v Aucas (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at Flamengo (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Libertad (A)3-2
- Sep 11 · v Flamengo (H)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Macará (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Macará | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.