Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Thu, Aug 20 · 22:00 · Macará vs Santos
Likeliest: Macará win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 36%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Macará51%36%+15
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−5
OursMarket
Santos25%35%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 45% | +11 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 65% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 64% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 51% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Macará
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 18 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)1-1
- Aug 13 · at Santos (A)1-2
- Aug 9 · at Barcelona SC (A)2-1
- Aug 2 · v Guayaquil City (H)2-1
- Jul 26 · at Aucas (A)4-1
Santos
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Aug 16 · at Vasco da Gama (A)3-0
- Aug 13 · v Macará (H)2-1
- Aug 9 · v Athletico (H)0-2
- Aug 5 · at Remo (A)1-0
- Aug 2 · v Remo (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Macará | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-0 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.