A-League Men (Australia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 06:00 · Macarthur FC vs Perth Glory
Likeliest: Macarthur FC win · 46%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Macarthur FC46%49%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Perth Glory26%26%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 57% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 59% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 65% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Macarthur FC
No recent results tracked.
Perth Glory
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Apr 25 · v Brisbane Roar (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Sydney (A)0-0
- Apr 12 · v Macarthur (H)3-1
- Apr 4 · at Central Coast Mariners (A)2-2
- Mar 22 · v Melbourne City (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Macarthur FC | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 60% |
| Both teams scored | — | 70% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.