Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:00 · Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Likeliest: Hapoel Be'er Sheva win · 47%
Likely score: 1–2
A 47% away win. The market says 33%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Maccabi Haifa30%41%−11
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−3
OursMarket
Hapoel Be'er Sheva47%33%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 67% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 59% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 55% | −16 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Maccabi Haifa
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at Maccabi Petach Tikva (A)2-1
- Oct 12 · at Hapoel Jerusalem (A)4-1
- Sep 19 · v Ironi Tiberias (H)3-2
- Sep 14 · at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · v Hapoel Petach Tikva (H)2-1
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Hapoel Jerusalem (H)2-1
- Oct 15 · at AZ Alkmaar (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Ironi Tiberias (A)2-0
- Sep 19 · v Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · v GNK Dinamo Zagreb (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Maccabi Haifa | Hapoel Be'er Sheva |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.