Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Sep 19 · 17:00 · Maccabi Haifa vs Ironi Tiberias
Likeliest: Maccabi Haifa win · 72%
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Maccabi Haifa72%70%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%19%−2
OursMarket
Ironi Tiberias11%12%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 30% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Maccabi Haifa
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 14 · at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · v Hapoel Petach Tikva (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (H)2-1
- May 23 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)5-2
Ironi Tiberias
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 15 · v Hapoel Jerusalem (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Maccabi Petach Tikva (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Hapoel Petach Tikva (H)1-0
- May 18 · at Hapoel Jerusalem (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Maccabi Haifa | Ironi Tiberias |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.