Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Sep 19 · 17:00 · Maccabi Netanya vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
Likeliest: Maccabi Tel Aviv win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the away win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Maccabi Netanya14%18%−3
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Maccabi Tel Aviv65%62%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 22% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 2.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Maccabi Netanya
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 14 · at Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (A)0-2
- Sep 7 · v Hapoel Haifa (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · at Beitar Jerusalem (A)4-1
- Aug 24 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)0-0
- May 18 · at Maccabi Bnei Raina (A)4-1
Maccabi Tel Aviv
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 14 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)4-1
- Sep 7 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)4-1
- Aug 31 · v Maccabi Haifa (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v FC Lugano (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Hapoel Jerusalem (A)5-2
| Last 10 games | Maccabi Netanya | Maccabi Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.