Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:30 · Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Bnei Sakhnin
Likeliest: Maccabi Tel Aviv win · 85%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Maccabi Tel Aviv85%82%+3
OursMarket
Draw10%12%−2
OursMarket
Bnei Sakhnin5%6%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 44% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 94% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 15% | 18% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 90% | 88% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 93% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Maccabi Tel Aviv
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)4-1
- Sep 7 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)4-1
- Aug 31 · v Maccabi Haifa (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v FC Lugano (H)1-1
Bnei Sakhnin
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (H)1-0
- Sep 14 · at Hapoel Haifa (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v Beitar Jerusalem (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Maccabi Petach Tikva (H)1-2
- Aug 24 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Bnei Sakhnin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.