Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:30 · Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Haifa
Likeliest: Maccabi Tel Aviv win · 79%
Likely score: 2–0
A 79% home win. The market says 74%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Maccabi Tel Aviv79%74%+4
OursMarket
Draw13%15%−2
OursMarket
Hapoel Haifa8%10%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 74% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 21% | 26% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 91% | 88% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Maccabi Tel Aviv
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- Oct 19 · at Beitar Jerusalem (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)4-1
- Sep 7 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)4-1
Hapoel Haifa
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · v Maccabi Petach Tikva (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Beitar Jerusalem (A)1-2
- Sep 14 · v Bnei Sakhnin (H)3-1
- Sep 7 · at Maccabi Netanya (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Hapoel Haifa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-7-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.