Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Mon, Sep 14 · 17:30 · Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Likeliest: Maccabi Tel Aviv win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Maccabi Tel Aviv40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Hapoel Tel Aviv32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Maccabi Tel Aviv
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 7 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)4-1
- Aug 31 · v Maccabi Haifa (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v FC Lugano (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Hapoel Jerusalem (A)5-2
- Aug 20 · at FC Lugano (A)1-2
Hapoel Tel Aviv
DrawLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 7 · v Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (H)4-0
- Sep 3 · v Beitar Jerusalem (H)3-0
- Aug 29 · at Hapoel Haifa (A)0-0
- Aug 27 · v Atalanta (H)0-1
- Aug 20 · at Atalanta (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Hapoel Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.