Israeli Premier League (Israel) · Mon, Aug 31 · 17:30 · Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Haifa
Likeliest: Maccabi Haifa win · 44%
We make it 44% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Maccabi Tel Aviv35%54%−19
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−1
OursMarket
Maccabi Haifa44%23%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 77% | −20 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 46% | +19 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 44% | 70% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Maccabi Tel Aviv
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 27 · v FC Lugano (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Hapoel Jerusalem (A)5-2
- Aug 20 · at FC Lugano (A)1-2
- Aug 13 · at CSKA Sofia (A)3-1
- Aug 6 · v CSKA Sofia (H)0-3
Maccabi Haifa
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 22 · v Hapoel Ramat Gan Givataim (H)2-1
- May 23 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)5-2
- May 19 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)4-1
- May 16 · v Hapoel Petah Tikva (H)1-1
- May 13 · at Maccabi Tel Aviv (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Maccabi Tel Aviv | Maccabi Haifa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.