J-League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 18 · 07:00 · Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka
Likeliest: Machida Zelvia win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Machida Zelvia51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Avispa Fukuoka20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Machida Zelvia
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 15 · at Tampines Rovers (A)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)1-0
- Sep 23 · v Tochigi City FC (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-4
- Sep 17 · v Svay Rieng FC (H)2-0
Avispa Fukuoka
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · v Fagiano Okayama (H)2-1
- Oct 7 · v Yokohama FC (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Mito Hollyhock (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Machida Zelvia | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.