J-League (Japan) · Sun, Sep 20 · 08:00 · Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol
Likeliest: Kashiwa Reysol win · 36%
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Machida Zelvia35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Kashiwa Reysol36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Machida Zelvia
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 17 · v Svay Rieng FC (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Nagoya Grampus (A)3-1
- Sep 2 · v Kawasaki Frontale (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Mito Hollyhock (A)1-1
Kashiwa Reysol
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 16 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Kyoto Sanga FC (A)3-2
- Sep 6 · v Yokohama F. Marinos (H)0-2
- Sep 2 · at Cerezo Osaka (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Shimizu S-Pulse (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Machida Zelvia | Kashiwa Reysol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.