Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers · Tue, Sep 29 · 13:00 · Madagascar vs Tanzania
Likeliest: draw · 37%
We make it 68% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Madagascar29%35%−6
OursMarket
Draw37%29%+7
OursMarket
Tanzania34%35%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 60% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 41% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 40% | 45% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 65% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 63% | 71% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 50% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Madagascar
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 25 · at Nigeria (A)0-0
- Jun 2 · at Morocco (A)0-4
- Mar 31 · at Equatorial Guinea (A)1-1
- Mar 28 · at Kyrgyz Republic (A)5-2
- Nov 17 · v Equatorial Guinea (H)2-0
Tanzania
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 25 · v Guinea-Bissau (H)0-0
- Mar 29 · at Macao (A)6-0
- Mar 26 · v Liechtenstein (H)0-1
- Nov 15 · at Kuwait (A)3-4
- Oct 14 · at Iran (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Madagascar | Tanzania |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.