3rd Division, Group 4 (Norway) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Madla vs Staal Jørpeland
Likeliest: Madla win · 53%
A 23% away win. The market says 11%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Madla53%74%−21
OursMarket
Draw24%15%+9
OursMarket
Staal Jørpeland23%11%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 77% | −26 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 89% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 26% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 85% | −9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 87% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Madla
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Varhaug (A)3-1
- Oct 4 · v Brodd (H)0-1
- Oct 1 · v Viking FK (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · at Åkra (A)6-0
- Sep 21 · v Haugesund II (H)1-1
Staal Jørpeland
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · v Våg FK (H)0-4
- Oct 2 · at Hinna (A)4-2
- Sep 25 · at Varhaug (A)0-0
- Sep 21 · v Viking FK II (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Brodd (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Madla | Staal Jørpeland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.