FA Cup (England) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:00 · Maidenhead United vs Ebbsfleet United
Likeliest: Maidenhead United win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Maidenhead United49%——
OursMarket
Draw25%——
OursMarket
Ebbsfleet United27%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | — | — |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Maidenhead United
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 13 · v Faversham Town (H)0-1
- May 5 · v Boston United (H)3-0
- Apr 26 · at Ebbsfleet United (A)2-0
- Apr 21 · at Wealdstone (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Woking (H)2-2
Ebbsfleet United
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Nov 1 · at Grimsby Town (A)1-3
- Oct 11 · v Solihull Moors (H)2-0
- Sep 27 · v Faversham Town (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Ashford Town (Middlesex) (H)5-0
- May 5 · at Oldham Athletic (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Maidenhead United | Ebbsfleet United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 0-2-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.