La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Jun 14 · 19:00 · Málaga vs Almería
Likeliest: Málaga win · 59%
A 59% home win. The market says 41%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Málaga59%41%+18
OursMarket
Draw21%29%−8
OursMarket
Almería20%30%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 51% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 70% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 59% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 71% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 58% | +17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Málaga
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Jun 10 · v Las Palmas (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · at Las Palmas (A)1-0
- May 31 · at Real Zaragoza (A)2-0
- May 24 · v Racing de Santander (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Racing Santander (H)1-1
Almería
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Jun 9 · v CD Castellón (H)3-2
- Jun 9 · v Castellón (H)3-2
- Jun 6 · at Castellón (A)1-1
- Jun 6 · at CD Castellón (A)1-1
- May 31 · v Real Valladolid (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Málaga | Almería |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.