La Liga (Spain) · Mon, Aug 24 · 19:30 · Málaga vs Deportivo La Coruña
Likeliest: Málaga win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 38%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Málaga56%38%+17
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−7
OursMarket
Deportivo La Coruña20%30%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 38% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 70% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 62% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 56% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Málaga
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Aug 19 · at Atletico Madrid (A)0-2
- Jun 20 · at Almería (A)2-1
- Jun 14 · v Almería (H)0-0
- Jun 10 · v Las Palmas (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · at Las Palmas (A)1-0
Deportivo La Coruña
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Aug 17 · v Elche (H)1-1
- May 31 · v Las Palmas (H)1-2
- May 24 · at Real Valladolid (A)2-0
- May 17 · v FC Andorra (H)2-1
- May 8 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Málaga | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.